A Study on Determination of the Growth Models Using COVID-19 Cases Between March 17 and July 12 2020 in Turkey: Cross-sectional Study

Objective: We use the most frequently used growth functions in literature for estimating Turkey's cumulative number of confirmed coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases. analyze Brody, Bertalanffy, Logistic, Generalized Gompertz, Richards, Negative Exponential, Stevens, and Tanaka models determining appropriate model. Material Methods: The cases COVID-19 Turkey between March 17, 2020 July 12, were included study. data study obtained from Johns Hopkins University. Non-linear Matlab software was to estimate parameters studied. non-linear least squares regression function is software. Results: According estimation results, best fitting model Richards terms both mean squared error R2 (coefficient determination). Conclusion: recommend modeling For future cases, it will be In addition, estimates daily are not compatible with actual This may occur because estimations on these can sometimes lead erroneous results.